Donald Trump: A Black Swan Event

trump black swan

rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno” (“a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan”) – Roman Poet Juvenal

Black Swan theory is easily explained. It is the idea that massive, hard to predict and rare events are usually the ones that are most consequential to the future of the planet, and that human psychological biases make them exceptionally hard to predict. They also have the side effect of being ridiculously predictable in hindsight. The idea was based on the common theory in ancient Rome that a Black Swan did not exist because no one had ever seen one, yet when they were discovered in the wild it was patently obvious that saying they didn’t exist was stupid.

Enter President Donald Trump. When he descended the escalator at Trump Tower to declare his candidacy, it was a laughable moment  for most political pundits. They pointed out, what they considered, to be his racist statement about Mexicans, his past philandering ways, his support for “birtherism” and his total lack of political experience. These were the factors that would preclude him from becoming President.

Then he decimated the Republican field in the primaries, and the pundits were done laughing, but now they were pissed. Someone had told them a Black Swan existed, but they still had never seen one so they easily dismissed it as impossible.

Then he won the Presidency…

The psychological effect was immediate and severe. Those who never saw a black swan had to almost invent reasons for its existence. It must be dyed black (The Russians), the person who says they saw it must be lying (The Media) and it must be the work of the Devil (Impeachment, the Electoral College, etc).

In hindsight, it almost seems as if the rise of Donald Trump was inevitable. The country was screaming for a new direction. The most notable achievement of the previous administration (Obamacare) was widely disliked and getting worse by the day, growth had been stagnant for a long time and the most important part of it all? The people who were told their opinions didn’t matter, decided that, yes they did.

Notice I stayed away from blaming Hilary Clinton, that makes the assumption that the rise of Donald Trump was still a glitch and would only be possible if the Democrats supported a lousy candidate. This is not true, and still doesn’t make President Trump a Black Swan.

What makes his rise so predictable and obvious was the history of the man. Regardless of the arguments against, the following is true:

  1. He built massive skyscrapers in Manhattan at a time where the market thought he would never be able to.
  2. He controlled multiple casinos in a town dominated by political influence.
  3. He became one of the most watched reality stars of our day, in a time where Kim Kardashian gets paid up to a million dollars for some tweets.
  4. He made billions of dollars even at times when the odds were against him.

What would stop this man from becoming President?

Yet the political class, which has been psychologically destroyed by President Trump, still says there is no such thing as Black Swans.

Which brings me to today. John McCain was diagnosed with Brain Cancer (a major blow to the political neocon class which despises him). George Soros is a household name, and not in a good way. European countries are fighting back against Leftist Marxist Dogma. Hilary Clinton faces the real possibility of being brought up on charges if she gets to public again, Congress is being pressed for actions and the people want accountability, the courts are believing they can rule on Law and not political influence…to sum it up, regardless of your opinion of the man, things are changing.

In a conversation with a colleague the other day, I made the comment that it is a great time to be alive. With all the doom and gloom around, I am one of the lucky people who realize that things are not actually that bad, but the result of all of us coming out of a bunker. The very state of the country, the freedoms we love and cherish, the Constitution is back in fashion and people are laughing again.

These are the signs of a new dawn. The bunker door is open and the bombs have stopped falling. We aren’t turning the TV on and being called Racists over a cartoon frog (I don’t mean they stopped saying it I mean we stopped turning on the TV or caring when we do). We are laughing about the debate about bathroom access for bearded men and we are coming to a place where we are realizing our military and police are not arms of the Gestapo. The Stock Market is rising and jobs are returning. The Main Stream Media is on the ropes and alternative media is exposing their lies every day. 

In short, people are believing in the ideals of America again.

The effects are not just short term gains either. I was discussing show guests with @StefMacWilliams the other day, and she was marveling that her guests are so young yet SO KNOWLEGABLE. People are learning about philosophy, politics, their history, their culture, the truth about Islam and bursting the Leftist narrative that all will be well as long as we cite Europe as an example of Socialist Utopia. For now, the Left has been decimated, and no amount of Antifa Temper Tantrums is going to change that.

So some political advice.

Enjoy the time you have right now. Get online and ridicule the Main Stream Media, Start a blog or podcast, engage, engage and engage. Donate to alternative media (hint: have some fun and meet new people. The future is uncertain and Black Swans are not discovered everyday. Join the Meme War against CNN (it is really really fun) Find out more about the plight of ethnic Kekistanis. There is so much on the horizon to enjoy, so enjoy the revelation for now. I know I am.

Also, stay tuned for some huge announcements from Halsey News dropping soon!

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About the Author

Halsey English
Halsey English serves as the Editor-in-Chief of Halsey News. An accredited journalist for more than 10 years, Halsey is one of the premier minds focusing on political thought and theory.